Lithium-ion battery market: gold mines to be mined


The protagonist in the era of green batteries has caused a confrontation between lithium-ion batteries and nickel metal hydride batteries. Chen Liquan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, even said: "Lithium-electric cars are a rare historical opportunity in China's fierce international competition. Lithium-electric cars will bring a Energy revolution and industrial revolution."

Japan quietly turned

Recently, the direction of R&D of new energy vehicles in Japan has quietly changed.

The major auto and battery companies have invested in the construction of a vehicle-mounted lithium-ion power battery production line, which will be put into operation from 2010 to 2011. Even Toyota's "endorsement model" of nickel-metal hydride batteries is considering the use of lithium batteries. Japan's Fuji economic analysis, the mainstream status of nickel-metal hydride batteries will be extended to 2011, but after 2011 lithium batteries will gradually erode the market share of nickel-metal hydride batteries.

AESC, a joint venture between Nissan, Nippon Electric and Dongjin, has started trial production of high-performance lithium rechargeable batteries. It is expected to be used in Nissan's electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles introduced in 2010. Lithium-ion batteries manufactured by AESC are said to have nearly twice the power density as conventional nickel-metal hydride batteries, and the thin and light appearance of the thin-type battery modules also allows the vehicle to take up more space.

According to estimates by the Japan Automobile Research Institute, the current hybrid car's popularity will predict that by 2020, the number of hybrid cars in Japan will reach approximately 3.6 million. If the high-performance lithium battery is more popularized, the usage volume may further reach the level of 7.2 million vehicles. There are media commentaries here that if Japan can gain the initiative to take the lead in the international standardization certification of a new generation of automotive lithium batteries, related companies will surely obtain great benefits.

In response, Li Shengmao, a researcher in China Investment Advisor New Energy Automobile Industry, pointed out that people have no fears about their future. Some domestic battery companies will expand their Ni-MH battery production lines in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Its future may face the risk of investment recovery.

The protagonist battles

However, China has other plans. The "Regulations on the Management of New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers and Product Access" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (abbreviated as "the "Rules") has caused the market to be in turmoil.

This "rule" was formally implemented on July 1. The new energy vehicle will be clearly divided into three different technical stages: the start-up period, the development period and the maturity period. Fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen engine vehicles, and DME vehicles were included in the start-up period; lithium-ion battery-powered hybrid passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and pure electric vehicles are in development; lead-acid batteries and nickel-metal hydride are used. The battery hybrid passenger car is mature.

It is worth noting that lithium-ion battery electric vehicles, which have been generally favored by the industry, have fallen behind the nickel-metal hydride battery hybrid and have been designated for development. This also means that lithium battery electric vehicles favored by Buffett and favored by the market have lost in the hands of hybrid NiMH batteries.

Despite this, Song Jian, executive vice president of the Institute of Automotive Engineering at Tsinghua University, said that although 99% of the world's hybrid battery market share is nickel-metal hydride batteries, nickel is expensive, and nickel-metal hydride batteries are higher in production cost than lithium batteries. A lot. Compared with nickel-metal hydride batteries, the new generation of lithium batteries will be halved in weight, and the storage capacity will be increased by more than one time. The mileage will be greatly increased after one charge. And the life of nickel-metal hydride batteries will reach the limit in the next 3 to 5 years. In the long run, lithium batteries will become a more important power source for the development of new energy vehicles in the future.

According to the "2009-2012 China Battery Industry Investment Analysis and Prospect Forecast Report" released by the China Investment Advisor, new energy vehicles will develop toward the "Ni-MH-Li-Ion-fuel cell" industrialization path. Although lithium-ion power batteries are difficult to replace nickel-metal hydride batteries within 2 to 3 years, it cannot be ignored that lithium batteries will replace nickel-metal hydride batteries in the future to become the mainstream of new energy vehicles.

Some experts suggest that in addition to advancing the industrialization of nickel-metal hydride batteries, China’s automobile enterprises and related battery companies should put their eyes on the long-term future, invest human and material resources in the research and development of power lithium batteries, and maintain the technical In order to occupy the broader new energy auto market, we are ready to make preparations.

Gold mine to be mined

At the 5th Beijing International Electric Vehicle Clean Energy Vehicle Exhibition held recently, the reporter of “China Union Business Daily” found that almost all the pure electric passenger cars brought by the major bus manufacturers were lithium batteries.

In fact, in the field of power batteries, not many involved in lithium-ion battery projects. According to a reporter from China United Daily News, Zhejiang Changxing has dozens of battery companies, but only three or four have lithium-ion battery projects. Most companies are producing lead-acid batteries. A Beijing-based sales person who produces and sells lithium-ion battery companies told China Unicom that along with the rise of electric vehicles and power batteries, a series of new faces such as power battery rental and electric vehicle charging stations will appear before us. Behind this is the need for a huge industrial chain to support it. Experience tells us that "acquiring opportunities" is very important for the development of the company.

From this point of view, in the face of the following situation, Chinese battery companies should prepare for the Nuggets in advance.

The report of Japanese IIT Consulting Company pointed out that in recent years, the use of lithium-ion power batteries instead of cadmium nickel batteries for electric tools has accelerated, and it has become the third largest lithium-ion battery application target except for mobile phones and notebook computers. No wonder some experts claim that the lithium-ion battery market is a gold mine to be tapped: by 2020, the market size of China's automotive power battery will reach several hundred billion yuan.

Li Shizhong, a senior engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said in an interview with a reporter from China’s United Business Daily: “China’s lithium battery technology foundation is relatively good. Although it is somewhat different from Japan in industrial scale and technology, it is ahead of other countries. The establishment of these standards is often based on preempting the commanding heights and grasping the core technical standards. While the current multinational auto giants are attacking the lithium battery field and seizing the market in large numbers, China's lithium battery technology development efforts should also be made.”

Before this, the development route of China's traditional auto industry has always followed the strategy. In the field of new energy vehicles, whether it is possible to get rid of the follow-up line and gradually step into the ranks of the leaders, lithium battery technology will become the key.


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