Huge fluctuations in oil prices have accelerated the industrialization of global new energy vehicles


1 The volatility of oil prices has once again had a huge impact on the world’s auto industry, and high-fuel-consumption cars have been contained

In the past 40 years, the international energy market experienced three major fluctuations. The oil crisis formed by the previous two fluctuations has had a huge impact on the global energy market and the automotive industry, but its fluctuation range is only within 30 US dollars/barrel, which is quite limited compared to the third international crude oil price change. The huge fluctuation of the third crude oil price began in the early 21st century. Due to the steady increase of energy demand in China, India and other countries, and the decline in the supply capacity of OPEC, global energy supply and demand have experienced a structural tension. Since 2000, international crude oil prices have fallen from less than US$20/barrel into a fast-rising channel. But this time the rising situation has gradually exceeded people's expectations. Since 2007, the international crude oil price has suddenly accelerated, and it has exceeded US$145/barrel by July 3, 2008, which is close to US$70/barrel in 2007. Doubled. This phenomenon cannot be explained as a structural contradiction between demand and supply. Afterwards, the international oil price suddenly dropped and fell to more than 30 US dollars per barrel in January 2009. After that, it slowly picked up and now rises to around US$70/barrel. This huge fluctuation is unprecedented in history (see Figure 1).

The sharp increase in international energy prices has not only had an important impact on the energy economy of countries in the world, but also brought about profound changes in the automobile industry in various countries. Large-displacement, high-fuel-consuming cars are no longer favored by consumers, fuel-efficient cars gradually occupy the market, and the research, development, and promotion of new energy vehicles have once again received attention. This change is particularly evident in the US market, which is pursuing comfort and performance and is keen on large-displacement cars. According to statistics, during the period of accelerated international crude oil price increases, the domestic domestic refined oil price has almost doubled. This change has profoundly affected the American automobile market. At the same time, the sales of large-displacement cars in the United States fell rapidly, hybrid cars and low fuel consumption. The models gradually opened up to the market.

Chart 1 International crude oil price fluctuation curve (1947-2007)

Source: United States Department of Energy Aragon National Laboratory.

Figure 2 Changes in US hybrid vehicle sales and domestic gasoline retail prices (2005-2007)

Source: J D Power, US Energy Information Administration.

Due to the high oil price fluctuations and the considerable financial subsidies provided by some state governments, hybrid vehicles have developed well in the United States. There are 29 light hybrid vehicles currently on the market. Since 2000, the United States has cumulatively sold more than 1 million hybrid vehicles. In 2008, the sales of hybrid vehicles accounted for 25% of the total sales of automobiles. In addition to hybrid passenger cars, medium- and heavy-duty hybrid trucks are entering the US market.

High oil prices have also had a profound impact on American consumers’ travel habits. Americans who "live on wheels" have begun to reduce the number of driving trips. Subway and bus ride rates have reached the highest levels in more than 50 years. Many Americans even buy new bicycles to cope with soaring gas prices. Sales of luxury cars such as Porsche, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and large cars such as SUVs declined, while sales of models in the low-end market rose sharply (see Figure 3). According to the latest statistics provided by the US AutoData research company, in the first quarter of 2008, US sales of cars increased by 27% year-on-year, but sales of light trucks including SUVs and pickups fell by 12%.

This shows that the eyes of American consumers began to shift from large-displacement models to fuel-efficient models. At the same time, in the face of more and more difficult transportation costs, the average annual growth rate of travel mileage per capita in the United States has decreased year by year. As shown in Figure 4, since 2004, the annual growth rate of domestic refined oil prices has exceeded 20%, while the average annual growth rate of American travel mileage has dropped to less than 2%. From 2007, the per capita travel of the United States The average annual growth rate of mileage has dropped to a negative value. In 2008, this ratio fell to -35%. Even in the second half of 2008, when the price of domestic refined oil fell sharply with the price of international crude oil, its per-capita travel mileage remained declining.

Figure 3 Changes in the market share of compact passenger cars in the United States and domestic gasoline retail prices (2000-2007)

Source: J D Power, US Energy Information Administration.

Fig. 4 Comparison of the average annual mileage growth of American cars with the growth rate of domestic gasoline prices

Source: US Federal Highway Administration, Energy Information Administration.

At the same time, it is true that a considerable portion of Americans adapt to changing gasoline prices by changing transportation habits or choosing new modes of transportation. According to a poll conducted by USATODAY and Gallup, 70% of Americans have reduced travel by some means. 32% of Americans have shortened or canceled car travel. Even 10% of Americans have chosen to change jobs. Reduce traffic mileage.

It can be seen that due to the longer cycle of rising refined oil prices, the habits of car consumers in the U.S. market have been deeply affected. Even if U.S. refined oil prices fall as international oil prices fall, most consumers still have Choosing to retain the current spending habits, in addition to the impact of the poor economic situation in the United States, more of the reasons come from consumers' understanding of energy shortages and expectations of a renewed rise in oil prices in the future. In December 2008, Gallup’s other poll, covering 1,008 American citizens over the age of 18, also confirmed this result. The survey shows that 64% of Americans have adjusted their driving habits to deal with high oil prices in early 2008. As of the end of 2008, the price of gasoline in the United States had fallen to $65/gal. After the drop in oil prices, less than 12% of the American public chose to resume their previous driving habits, including low-income people and young people who are less likely to consider the effects of the financial crisis and are vulnerable to fuel policy subsidy policies.

Figure 5 Changes in China's dependence on oil (1993-2007)

Source: China Statistical Yearbook for the corresponding year.

2 The fluctuation of oil prices further highlights the strategic significance of developing new energy vehicles for China's energy security and sustainable development.

As the Chinese government controls the price of refined oil to a certain extent, it is not obvious that the domestic automobile market is directly affected by the fluctuation of international oil prices. However, with the rapid expansion of the domestic auto industry, the continuous increase in oil imports will be a long-term trend. From 1999 to 2007, China's oil import dependency increased year by year, and it is now close to 50%, as shown in Figure 5. While the dependence on oil imports has continued to increase, the issue of the Blue Book on energy security has become more severe. Fundamentally solve the problem of energy security, on the one hand, we must start from the supply side, vigorously increase the proportion of renewable energy, and reduce the consumption of fossil energy; on the other hand, we should start from the demand side and reduce the consumption of petroleum resources through policy adjustment. Improve the use of oil resources.

Among the ever-increasing oil consumption, motor vehicles have gradually become the most important field and the most important growth factor for oil consumption, and have been rising year by year. At present, China's motor vehicle fuel consumption accounts for 60% of the country's petroleum fuel consumption, as shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6 Proportion of China's Motor Vehicle Consumption of Petroleum Fuels

Source: China Energy Development Report 2009, National Development and Reform Commission Energy Bureau.

With the rapid development of the national economy, the demand for highway transportation will continue to grow. According to the forecast of the Development Research Center of the State Council, the passenger traffic volume of China's highway transportation sector will continue to grow rapidly in the next 20 years, as shown in Figure 7. That is, by 2020, the traffic volume will double over 2010. In line with this, transportation fuel consumption will increase rapidly, from 555 million tons in 2000 to 256 billion tons in 2020.

It is particularly worth noting that China’s total fuel consumption is expected to increase by 2.3 billion tons between 2000 and 2020, of which traffic fuel consumption will increase by 200 million tons, accounting for 87%. If there is no significant increase in the energy efficiency of transportation, there will be a huge gap between the consumption of petroleum for road traffic and China’s oil supply. In order to ensure the sustained and rapid development of the Chinese economy, it is necessary to resolve the huge contradiction between energy supply and demand. At the same time, for the needs of China's energy security, the development of energy-saving and new energy technologies is a necessary strategic path. Especially in the field of transportation, the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles has become an inevitable choice for the realization of China's sustainable development strategy.

New Energy Vehicle Development Trend

Figure 7 Forecast of Traffic Personnel and Freight Traffic in China (2000-2020)

Source: State Council Development Research Center.



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