Stainless Steel Plain Washer,Plain Washer,Steel Washer Sheet Metal Fabrication Co., Ltd. , http://www.challmetal.com
Due to the economic downturn and the soaring oil price, the oil demand of the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, has been greatly weakened. However, there are signs that the decline in oil demand may be even more pronounced when oil inventories have far exceeded expectations. Under the combined effect of these factors, crude oil futures may be hit hard. Crude oil futures are currently exploring the direction after falling 21% from the record high in early July.
Previously, the US Energy Information Administration’s data for the first half of August showed that the US’s demand for oil so far in August was 20.2 million barrels per day. The revised US oil demand for the entire August 2007 was 2,102.5 million barrels (the lowest level of oil demand in August for five years). Compared with this level, the current US daily oil demand has dropped by nearly 80 percent. Million barrels, a drop of 3.7%.
The Energy Information Administration forecasted in the “Short-Term Energy Outlook†on August 12th that the average daily oil demand of the United States in August was 2,073 million barrels, which was a decrease of 295,000 barrels compared with the same period in 2007, a decrease of 1.4%. This expectation was clearly oversized. Even if the forecast is correct, US oil demand in August may still fall behind the same level in the previous year for the 13th consecutive month.
The weaker-than-expected oil demand signal has caused the EIA's expectations less than two weeks ago to be strongly questioned. The expectation is that the US’s average daily oil demand in the third quarter was 20.46 million barrels, which was an increase of 520,000 barrels from the second quarter. In 2007, the US oil demand in the third quarter increased by only 100,000 barrels compared with the second quarter, and this change in demand increased by an average of 300,000 barrels over the five-year period.
Since the third quarter of the summer season peaked in September and August and the winter before the onset of winter season, it is probably the most difficult test for the third quarter.
Expectations are usually based on past conditions, and to a certain extent can give the data some confidence in accurately reflecting trends. In the past five years in September, the daily oil demand has generally fallen by more than 800,000 barrels compared with August.
Based on this calculation, the daily demand for oil in September 2008 may fall to 19.4 million barrels, the lowest level since 2001, and the daily demand for oil in the third quarter of 2008 may also drop below 20 million for the first time since 2002. Bucket situation.
If oil demand in the third quarter is sluggish to this point, the daily oil demand in the third quarter of 1989 will be lower than the second quarter for the first time. The current estimate by the Energy Information Administration is that the daily demand for oil in the second quarter was 19.95 million barrels, a drop of 68.9 million barrels over the same period of 2007, a decrease of 3.3%, which was the lowest level of oil demand in the second quarter since 1981.
Demand in U.S. oil may weaken significantly beyond market expectations
The large drop in US oil demand may exceed market expectations, and the market is therefore concerned that oil demand in the third quarter is expected to fall below the second quarter level for the first time in 20 years.