Su Hui: This year's automotive market development trends and manufacturers strategy analysis

In 2009, China’s auto market achieved the goal of producing and marketing the world’s number one. In 2010, the government’s target for production and sales of the Chinese auto industry was a growth of 10%, reaching a target of 15 million vehicles. Whether it can be achieved is worth exploring. The Chinese auto industry in 2010 predicted Optimistic, but actually affected by many factors at home and abroad, many variables, opportunities and challenges coexist. The current timely, objective, and accurate market analysis and judgment are particularly important and must be highly focused.

I. General Trends and Judgments of China's Auto Market

At present, there are some trends in the domestic auto market:

1. The trend of nationwide centralized transactions has become increasingly evident;

2. Starting from the actual conditions, the national large-scale centralized auto market and auto parks;

3. The rapid development of the nationwide super car sales group;

4. Diversified and multi-brand dealers form the mainstream of the market;

5. The online auto market has an increasing influence on auto marketing and auto consumption;

6. The consumer concept of consumption is undergoing major changes;

7. The market potential of after-sales service is huge, and the contradiction of inadequacy is becoming increasingly prominent

8. The production and sales targets of the automotive industry are clear, but the big market is not clear;

9. The used car market will have a high growth rate in 2010;

10. In the past, rich people bought cars, and now ordinary people buy cars;

11. The growth of total autos in major cities has slowed down, and the second and third-tier cities have grown rapidly;

12. Auto credit consumption will have a rapid growth trend in 2010.

(I) The overall goal of production and sales is still not clear

1. The government has specified the overall goal of 10% growth in the production and sales of the Chinese auto industry in 2010. Some industry groups and experts recently forecast growth targets of 20%-30%.

In 2009 and 2009, 13.64 million vehicles were sold, an increase of 10% should reach the target of 15 million vehicles, and the automotive industry and experts predict that the target for production and sales will reach 1700-1800 units this year.

3. Some experts predict that the target of 20 million vehicles can be reached. Even some experts predict that it is possible to maintain a 45% growth level!

4. Based on the prosperous production and sales in 2009, all manufacturers have increased their production and sales targets in 2010, of which the self-owned brand has increased by 70%, and forecast that the production and sales will increase by 15%-30%.

(II) Changes and Analysis of Current Economic Development and Automobile Market

The annual meeting of the Chinese economy (organized by CCTV Finance Channel) has a clear view from senior officials. That is: we have entered 2010, which is full of uncertainties. The impact of the international financial crisis still exists and the global economy is undergoing a slow and arduous recovery process.

About economic changes:

1. The impact of the international financial crisis in 2010 still exists and will certainly have an important impact on the domestic economy.

2. The impact of the people's livelihood issues and the impact of high-speed housing prices.

3. China's dependence on oil imports has reached 52%.

4. Some experts said that in 2010 China's inflation rate may exceed 5% (the warning line is 4%).

5. The problem of unemployment, especially the problem of unemployment of migrant workers (mainly caused by the large supply of real estate land), is a serious problem.

6. Natural disasters are prominent and have a great impact.

7. The current domestic inflation expectation has increased and the impact is huge.

About the automotive industry:

1. The domestic and Beijing auto market has experienced a decline from May to June. At present, it has entered the end of July and the trend of sales decline has not changed.

2. The government formally determined that the production and sales target of the auto industry will increase by 10% in 2010.

3. All manufacturers increased their production and marketing targets in 2010, in which the production and sales targets of self-owned brand enterprises increased by an average of 72%.

4. In the first half of the year, the government's two-time adjustment of the car trade-in policy in the first month was mainly at the beginning of the month and was raised from a low standard. The middle of the month was mainly to combine the trade-in policy with the purchase tax preferential policy of 1.6 and below.

5. The government has introduced compensation standards for consumers to purchase new energy vehicles and electric vehicles. The national auto industry is setting off new energy vehicle fever. The sales of new energy vehicles have little effect on the overall sales of automobiles this year.

6. On July 1st, the national government implemented a policy that the emission of economy vehicles under 1.6 and the equivalent of energy-saving vehicles at the same time with a subsidy of 3,000 yuan will have a major impact on the automobile market in the second half of the year or the economic automobile market.

7. In the first half of the year, the domestic auto market experienced special phenomena such as out-of-stock price increases, preferential promotions, and price reduction promotions. At the same time, there will be no new car price increase in the second half of the year, but will continue to increase sales efforts.

8. In the current situation, Dongfeng Motor Group took the lead in announcing the formal implementation of the new marketing strategy of renting and selling, which will have an important impact on the marketing market.

9. At the beginning of the year, senior government officials stated publicly that they would put forward plans for the implementation of public car purchase reforms during the year, including the implementation of standard methods. The public opinion on public car purchases has increased (according to statistics, annual public car purchases are as high as 300 billion yuan, and the average cost per vehicle is as high as 10 Million).

10. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has formally stated that the five major departments are the focus of the reorganization and merger of the automotive industry in 2010, and the automotive industry is among them.

11. The automobile market will accelerate the transfer to second-tier and third-tier cities or third and fourth-tier cities, and the automobile will also accelerate its development in the countryside.

12. A consensus has been reached on the principle of car sales and consumption in cities, especially in big cities, that is, the general policy is to have unlimited ownership and limited use. Promote combination travel.

13, the characteristics of car consumption: the past is a rich person to buy a car, now is the average person to buy a car; China's auto market has entered the era of ordinary consumption.

14. As the auto market is forming fierce market competition in the second half of the year, dealers have already faced three major risks such as huge inventory pressure, increased capital chain risk, and accelerated market sales, which will push the auto market to fight price wars.

(c) Analysis of the above factors:

According to the latest statistics from the Ministry of Public Security’s Traffic Management Bureau, as of the end of 2009, the number of motor vehicles in the country was 186,580,658 vehicles, an increase of 16,692,914 vehicles compared with 2008, an increase of 9.83%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points. Among them, the number of vehicles is 76,139,055 and the number of motorcycles is 94,530,658, which accounts for 40.84% ​​and 50.66% of the total number of motor vehicles in the country. It is the main component of motor vehicles.

In 2009, the number of motorists in the country reached 199765889, an increase of 19105153 people, an increase of 10.58%, an increase of 0.25 percentage points compared with 2008. Of these, 138,203,911 were motorists, which accounted for 69.18% of the number of drivers, which was 1.81 times the number of cars; compared with 2008, they increased 16,111,779, which was 13.20%.

1. Analysis of the impact of the macro situation

- Mainly the housing market, weak stock market, inflation expectations, and people's livelihood issues

2. Analysis of the influence of automobile market policies

(1) Analysis of car trade-in policy and purchase tax preferential policy sharing

- Three purposes, two role analysis

(2) Analysis of the policies for automobile going to the countryside

(3) Analysis of the Subsidy Standards for Purchase of New Energy Vehicles

(4) Analysis of the Subsidy Policy for Energy-Saving Vehicles that Has Been Issued

(5) Analysis of the prospects of the official car market

(6) Intensified competition and price competition analysis

(7) The basic judgment of the auto market in 2010: It has been transformed into a market driven by policy promotion.

Second, on the automotive marketing market trends and judgments

(I) Analysis of several changes affecting car marketing:

1. At the end of 2009, enthusiasm for car purchases formed the early release impact of the 2010 market. The automobile sales market in the first half of the year has already had an important impact and will be greatly reduced in the second half of the year.

2. In the first half of the year, the auto market showed a trend of highs and lows. In the second half of the year, the automobile sales market will further slow down and car prices will decline further.

3. In 2010, the manufacturers significantly increased their production and sales plans, resulting in overcapacity, including sales competition, price competition, and increased market competition.

4. In 2010, there will be fierce price competition and a price war may be formed in the second half of the year.

5. Contradictions between the auto aftermarket and the auto sales market have intensified, and the auto industry is underestimated.

6. The price of oil and gasoline is expected to increase after the August automobile market.

7. The state has strengthened the reorganization and merger of the automobile industry and its impact on the market.

8. The manufacturers have determined that they will expand their agency outlets in 2010 and are currently expanding sales outlets across the country. This will greatly promote the disorderly competition among new and old distributors and create a reshuffle effect.

9. The development of the super-large auto marketing group has been accelerated, especially the development of agents in the secondary market, that is, the development of secondary agents in the same city.

10. In 2009, there was not a crisis in the Chinese automobile manufacturing industry. What's more important is that the auto marketing model did not seize the opportunity and did not encounter challenges. What did you say?

11. Major cities have accelerated the development of subways, light rail, intercity trains, and buses, and will form a diversion of the automobile market.

For example, the Beijing government has already proposed that by the end of 2010, the main mode of public transportation will reach 40%, which shows that its impact is significant.

12. In recent years, due to the competition and rapid development of the auto market, the trend of concentrated trading in the auto market is very obvious. At present, major cities in China are planning to build local large-scale automobile markets and auto parks.

13. The rapid development of on-line auto market or online marketing, China's urbanization has reached 45%, and the urban population has reached 607 million people. China’s Internet users have approached 400 million people, 150 million of whom have had online shopping experiences. The rapid development of online shopping.

(II) Trends in the Changes of Automobile Stores

At present, the scale of domestic automobile marketing is as follows: There are more than 50,000 authorized dealers in China, including about 15,000 4S shops, more than 520 large-scale automobile markets and automobile parks across the country, more than 600 used car trading markets, and more than 600 auto parts. Market and 350,000 car repair companies. Among them, 13.6 million automobile sales accounted for 50% each by the automotive market and automotive specialty stores.

1. In 2010, the sales of automobiles, single-store sales increased, and the profits of bicycles decreased, mainly due to high investment.

2. The distributor has accelerated the transition to a multi-brand agency by a single brand agent, and multi-brand agents have formed the mainstream trend of dealer development.

3. Some 4S stores have already broken the way of professional after-sales market services since the beginning of 2009. All models of the brand can enter the store for maintenance, pursuing the maximization of profits, especially for brands of the same manufacturer series models.

4. In 2009, most 4S stores began to increase the establishment of secondary marketing outlets in the region, accelerated the development of secondary agents in the same city, and increased vehicle sales.

5. The trend of adjusting to high-end brands has emerged in small and medium-sized 4S stores. High-end brands are currently in short supply, with good economic returns and a significant increase in sales.

6, 4S stores in 2010, due to manufacturers to increase the production and sales targets, sales pressure, there have been preferential promotions, there is the price war expected.

7. Most stores lack middle- and high-level automobile maintenance and vehicle maintenance talents, and they have not been able to cope with the enormous after-sales market response capacity of annual sales of 13 million-15 million vehicles.

8. As a result of the rapid development of the large-scale automobile market and the automobile park, a large regional market has been formed, and specialty stores are accelerating the effective integration of entry into the automobile market.

(III) Development of large-scale automobile market and automobile park

1. Current development trend and market positioning of large-scale automobile market

2. Function positioning and influence of large-scale automobile market

3. Policy implications: such as car purchase procedures and car licensing issues

4, national conditions, market conditions, consumer preferences

5. Urban development and planning requirements of local governments

6. Future development and trends of the automotive market

Second, on the automotive marketing market trends and judgments

(I) Analysis of several changes affecting car marketing:

1. At the end of 2009, enthusiasm for car purchases formed the early release impact of the 2010 market. The automobile sales market in the first half of the year has already had an important impact and will be greatly reduced in the second half of the year.

2. In the first half of the year, the auto market showed a trend of highs and lows. In the second half of the year, the automobile sales market will further slow down and car prices will decline further.

3. In 2010, the manufacturers significantly increased their production and sales plans, resulting in overcapacity, including sales competition, price competition, and increased market competition.

4. In 2010, there will be fierce price competition and a price war may be formed in the second half of the year.

5. Contradictions between the auto aftermarket and the auto sales market have intensified, and the auto industry is underestimated.

6. The price of oil and gasoline is expected to increase after the August automobile market.

7. The state has strengthened the reorganization and merger of the automobile industry and its impact on the market.

8. The manufacturers have determined that they will expand their agency outlets in 2010 and are currently expanding sales outlets across the country. This will greatly promote the disorderly competition among new and old distributors and create a reshuffle effect.

9. The development of the super-large auto marketing group has been accelerated, especially the development of agents in the secondary market, that is, the development of secondary agents in the same city.

10. In 2009, there was not a crisis in the Chinese automobile manufacturing industry. What's more important is that the auto marketing model did not seize the opportunity and did not encounter challenges. What did you say?

11. Major cities have accelerated the development of subways, light rail, intercity trains, and buses, and will form a diversion of the automobile market.

For example, the Beijing government has already proposed that by the end of 2010, the main mode of public transportation will reach 40%, which shows that its impact is significant.

12. In recent years, due to the competition and rapid development of the auto market, the trend of concentrated trading in the auto market is very obvious. At present, major cities in China are planning to build local large-scale automobile markets and auto parks.

13. The rapid development of on-line auto market or online marketing, China's urbanization has reached 45%, and the urban population has reached 607 million people. China’s Internet users have approached 400 million people, 150 million of whom have had online shopping experiences. The rapid development of online shopping.

(II) Trends in the Changes of Automobile Stores

At present, the scale of domestic automobile marketing is as follows: There are more than 50,000 authorized dealers in China, including about 15,000 4S shops, more than 520 large-scale automobile markets and automobile parks across the country, more than 600 used car trading markets, and more than 600 auto parts. Market and 350,000 car repair companies. Among them, 13.6 million automobile sales accounted for 50% each by the automotive market and automotive specialty stores.

1. In 2010, the sales of automobiles, single-store sales increased, and the profits of bicycles decreased, mainly due to high investment.

2. The distributor has accelerated the transition to a multi-brand agency by a single brand agent, and multi-brand agents have formed the mainstream trend of dealer development.

3. Some 4S stores have already broken the way of professional after-sales market services since the beginning of 2009. All models of the brand can enter the store for maintenance, pursuing the maximization of profits, especially for brands of the same manufacturer series models.

4. In 2009, most 4S stores began to increase the establishment of secondary marketing outlets in the region, accelerated the development of secondary agents in the same city, and increased vehicle sales.

5. The trend of adjusting to high-end brands has emerged in small and medium-sized 4S stores. High-end brands are currently in short supply, with good economic returns and a significant increase in sales.

6, 4S stores in 2010, due to manufacturers to increase the production and sales targets, sales pressure, there have been preferential promotions, there is the price war expected.

7. Most stores lack middle- and high-level automobile maintenance and vehicle maintenance talents, and they have not been able to cope with the enormous after-sales market response capacity of annual sales of 13 million-15 million vehicles.

8. As a result of the rapid development of the large-scale automobile market and the automobile park, a large regional market has been formed, and specialty stores are accelerating the effective integration of entry into the automobile market.

(III) Development of large-scale automobile market and automobile park

1. Current development trend and market positioning of large-scale automobile market

2. Function positioning and influence of large-scale automobile market

3. Policy implications: such as car purchase procedures and car licensing issues

4, national conditions, market conditions, consumer preferences

5. Urban development and planning requirements of local governments

6. Future development and trends of the automotive market

Second, on the automotive marketing market trends and judgments

(I) Analysis of several changes affecting car marketing:

1. At the end of 2009, enthusiasm for car purchases formed the early release impact of the 2010 market. The automobile sales market in the first half of the year has already had an important impact and will be greatly reduced in the second half of the year.

2. In the first half of the year, the auto market showed a trend of highs and lows. In the second half of the year, the automobile sales market will further slow down and car prices will decline further.

3. In 2010, the manufacturers significantly increased their production and sales plans, resulting in overcapacity, including sales competition, price competition, and increased market competition.

4. In 2010, there will be fierce price competition and a price war may be formed in the second half of the year.

5. Contradictions between the auto aftermarket and the auto sales market have intensified, and the auto industry is underestimated.

6. The price of oil and gasoline is expected to increase after the August automobile market.

7. The state has strengthened the reorganization and merger of the automobile industry and its impact on the market.

8. The manufacturers have determined that they will expand their agency outlets in 2010 and are currently expanding sales outlets across the country. This will greatly promote the disorderly competition among new and old distributors and create a reshuffle effect.

9. The development of the super-large auto marketing group has been accelerated, especially the development of agents in the secondary market, that is, the development of secondary agents in the same city.

10. In 2009, there was not a crisis in the Chinese automobile manufacturing industry. What's more important is that the auto marketing model did not seize the opportunity and did not encounter challenges. What did you say?

11. Major cities have accelerated the development of subways, light rail, intercity trains, and buses, and will form a diversion of the automobile market.

For example, the Beijing government has already proposed that by the end of 2010, the main mode of public transportation will reach 40%, which shows that its impact is significant.

12. In recent years, due to the competition and rapid development of the auto market, the trend of concentrated trading in the auto market is very obvious. At present, major cities in China are planning to build local large-scale automobile markets and auto parks.

13. The rapid development of on-line auto market or online marketing, China's urbanization has reached 45%, and the urban population has reached 607 million people. China’s Internet users have approached 400 million people, 150 million of whom have had online shopping experiences. The rapid development of online shopping.

(II) Trends in the Changes of Automobile Stores

At present, the scale of domestic automobile marketing is as follows: There are more than 50,000 authorized dealers in China, including about 15,000 4S shops, more than 520 large-scale automobile markets and automobile parks across the country, more than 600 used car trading markets, and more than 600 auto parts. Market and 350,000 car repair companies. Among them, 13.6 million automobile sales accounted for 50% each by the automotive market and automotive specialty stores.

1. In 2010, the sales of automobiles, single-store sales increased, and the profits of bicycles decreased, mainly due to high investment.

2. The distributor has accelerated the transition to a multi-brand agency by a single brand agent, and multi-brand agents have formed the mainstream trend of dealer development.

3. Some 4S stores have already broken the way of professional after-sales market services since the beginning of 2009. All models of the brand can enter the store for maintenance, pursuing the maximization of profits, especially for brands of the same manufacturer series models.

4. In 2009, most 4S stores began to increase the establishment of secondary marketing outlets in the region, accelerated the development of secondary agents in the same city, and increased vehicle sales.

5. The trend of adjusting to high-end brands has emerged in small and medium-sized 4S stores. High-end brands are currently in short supply, with good economic returns and a significant increase in sales.

6, 4S stores in 2010, due to manufacturers to increase the production and sales targets, sales pressure, there have been preferential promotions, there is the price war expected.

7. Most stores lack middle- and high-level automobile maintenance and vehicle maintenance talents, and they have not been able to cope with the enormous after-sales market response capacity of annual sales of 13 million-15 million vehicles.

8. As a result of the rapid development of the large-scale automobile market and the automobile park, a large regional market has been formed, and specialty stores are accelerating the effective integration of entry into the automobile market.

(III) Development of large-scale automobile market and automobile park

1. Current development trend and market positioning of large-scale automobile market

2. Function positioning and influence of large-scale automobile market

3. Policy implications: such as car purchase procedures and car licensing issues

4, national conditions, market conditions, consumer preferences

5. Urban development and planning requirements of local governments

6. Future development and trends of the automotive market

Third, on the car manufacturers, businesses corresponding strategy analysis

(1) The objective of production and sales of 15 million vehicles can be objectively achieved through hard work. In the first half of the year, sales reached 9.02 million units. Will it be considered that 18 million vehicles will be reached in the year?

(B), concerned about the domestic self-owned brands generally increase the development of production and sales targets of 72%, the current domestic car inventory pressure is huge, imported cars and joint ventures inventory pressure is not large, but it is precisely the pressure of independent brand inventory.

(III) In 2010, there will be major adjustments and changes in automobile marketing. Due to the country's situation in speeding up the reorganization of the auto industry, coupled with more fierce competition in the auto market, and continuous expansion of the development mode of operating outlets, adjustments and changes are inevitable. .

(D) In ​​2010, the price competition in the automotive sales market is inevitable.

(5) Focusing on the rapid development of domestic super-large auto groups, capital strength has promoted the reorganization of auto dealer groups.

(VI) The consumption structure of the auto market is changing

1. With the support of policies in 2010, economic vehicles are still the main force of development, and their market share is high.

2. The low-level quantification of medium-to-high-level vehicles is evident.

3, the rapid development of automotive rejuvenation.

4. There are car races in China, where women make up 40% and grow rapidly.

5. Demand proportion of cars decreased (the total amount increased), and the growth rate of SUVs, SUVs, MPVs, etc. exceeded the growth rate of cars.

(7) Contradictions between the automotive aftermarket and the automotive sales market are outstanding. The potential of the market after the market is huge, and the current car marketing is increasingly unsuitable.

(8) Target customers and target groups are increasingly important, and market segmentation is increasingly important. Such as: for the female car consumption brands and models, did not form a characteristic marketing.

(9) The potential of the used car market is huge, and there will be a rapid growth in 2010. In 2009, the ratio of used car trades in the country reached only 3.3 million units and new car sales was 1:0.25.

(X) Market reputation has become crucial, including sales and services.

Another: At the end of 2010, the various policies that have been introduced to drive demand for cars will expire. Due to the characteristics of concentrated expiry, another sensitive period of the automobile market policy will be presented, and even the peak sales of car sales may be reproduced at the end of 2009.

(11) Several industries that warrant attention are released:

1. China Automobile Dealership Association: Ranking of Automotive Hedging Rate (released in October 2009)

2. China Automobile Dealers Association: National Sales of Automobiles (March 2010)

——Sales ranking of major dealers nationwide

3. China Automotive After-sales Service Satisfaction Index Released (Liansion International Survey Agency, Lian-Sheng)

4. Published by the National Bureau of Quality Supervision on the annual and quarterly consumer complaints

- The majority of car consumers are very concerned

5. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: monthly, quarterly and annual production and sales data of the domestic automobile industry

(12) The emergence and development of new marketing formats in domestic and foreign automotive markets

(13) The rapid development and impact of online auto market and online marketing

(14) Changes in the diversification of automobile distribution formats and development trends

(15) Preventing the domestic auto market from going up and down (up from 2009)

(XVI) Using wisdom to attach great importance to and handle public relations crisis

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