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According to reports, in recent years, the Middle East countries have used their unique oil and gas resources to vigorously develop the petrochemical industry, and their market share in the world has grown rapidly. According to media reports from the Gulf region, in 2007, the production of ethylene in the Gulf countries exceeded 10 million tons, accounting for 9% of the world's total output. Only one country in Saudi Arabia’s ethylene production reached 7 million tons. Industry experts in the Gulf region once predicted that by 2020, the proportion of ethylene production capacity in the Gulf Region to the total global production capacity will increase to 15%, which is the leading position in the global petrochemical industry. The experts attending the conference are more optimistic about the potential of ethylene in the Middle East. They believe that the proportion of ethylene production capacity in the Middle East will rise rapidly from 10% in 2005 to 20% in 2010. The countries in the Middle East have advantages in terms of geographical location, shipping and infrastructure construction, and will therefore have a stronger competitiveness in the international ethylene market.
Many experts pointed out at the meeting that the Middle East region will soon become an important export base for petrochemical products. Its export target is mainly in the Asia Pacific region, especially China. It is estimated that in 2010, the polyethylene exported to China in the Middle East will reach 2 million tons, which can supplement the gap of nearly 50% in China; the export of China's ethylene glycol is about 3 million tons, which can complement the gap of 73% in China; One million tons can supplement the gap of nearly 50% in China. In the future, a large number of Middle East petrochemical products will influx into China, which will cause greater impact on related domestic companies.
According to Shu Zhaoxia, deputy chief engineer of Sinopec Consulting Company, the number of petrochemical products imported from the Middle East in recent years, especially ethylene derivatives, is increasing rapidly. For instance, in 2006, China imported about 800,000 tons of polyethylene from Saudi Arabia, accounting for 16.2% of the total import volume. In 2000, the import volume was only 290,000 tons. The import volume of ethylene glycol increased faster and it was imported from Saudi Arabia in 2000. Ethylene glycol was only 146,000 tons, which soared to 1.54 million tons in 2006. The proportion of imports in total imports has rapidly increased from 14% to 38%. In 2007, the import volume exceeded 2 million tons.
In view of the fact that some petrochemical products in China will still be in short supply in the next few years, the international market, especially in the Middle East, will cause greater pressure on the Chinese market. According to Shu Zhaoxia, due to the high transportation costs of ethylene, Middle Eastern countries will mainly export downstream products such as polyethylene and ethylene glycol. At the same time, according to the development plan of the Middle East, in the next few years, the Middle East countries will vigorously develop the polypropylene industry. They will increase propylene production through olefin conversion, propane dehydrogenation, and other methods. The propylene produced is mainly used for the production of polypropylene. It is expected that between 2005 and 2010, the average annual growth rate of propylene production capacity in the Middle East will reach 26%, and the average annual growth rate of polypropylene production capacity will reach 29%. By 2010, the production capacity of propylene in the Middle East and polypropylene production capacity will reach 8.84 million tons/year and 7.95 million tons/year respectively. By that time, polypropylene exports could reach 4 million tons/year, mainly exported to Western Europe and Asia.
Middle East will become the new exporter of petrochemicals
In 2010, the Middle East will surpass the United States to become the world's largest export base of petrochemical products, of which 80% of the new capacity will be for overseas markets, especially the Asia-Pacific market. A large number of Middle East petrochemical products influx into China will cause greater impact on domestic related companies. This is what the reporter learned from the petrochemical industry summit forum hosted by CBI in March 27-28.