Alcohol ether market risk is increasing

The most eye-catching performance in the chemical market recently was alcohol ether: the ex-factory price of methanol soared to RMB 3,800 to RMB 3,900 (t price, the same below), and the market price also rose steadily; supported by it, the price of dimethyl ether also soared. Quotes, the ex-factory price soared from 4000 yuan in mid-September all the way to the current 5600 yuan, the market price is more than 6100 yuan. However, with the increase in the price of alcohol ethers, the market risk has been increasing.

The reason why the alcohol ether market is hot recently is that international oil prices have risen sharply, driving the prices of auto fuel and liquefied petroleum gas higher. At present, the purchase price of liquefied petroleum gas in the Pearl River Delta region has reached 6,300 yuan, which has increased by more than 600 yuan from the end of September. The price advantage of civilian dimethyl ether and methanol gasoline has been highlighted, and the demand has been vigorously pushing up the price of alcohol ethers. Second, some time ago, the domestic acetic acid market was booming, and the operating rate of enterprises was generally higher. The demand for methanol was increased and the price of methanol was stimulated to rise, which in turn drove the price of dimethyl ether up. Third, the typhoon in the early period caused the obstruction of maritime transport, which led to a significant reduction in the volume of imported methanol and liquefied petroleum gas, tight supply in the market, and “gas shortage” in East China and South China.

At the same time, the risk of hot markets is also increasing. On the one hand, the current consumption of formaldehyde and acetic acid in the main consumption areas of methanol is not as high as the downstream demand, and the operating rate is generally not high. In particular, acetic acid was dragged down by the downstream chloroacetic acid start-up rate and the weak demand for acetate. The market was already weak, forcing many companies to reduce the equipment load and restrain the methanol price from rising again. On the other hand, after a sharp increase in the previous period, the current market price of dimethyl ether has reached more than 6,100 yuan, and the gap between the price of liquefied petroleum gas is shrinking, and sales are not as smooth as the previous period. Buyers in some regions even wait and see or take a The way out is quick to avoid market risks. Those companies that purchased methanol as their raw material have also reduced their equipment load because of unsustainable increases in methanol costs.

Finally, it is also a point that is easily overlooked by market participants. The reason why the alcohol ether market is hot recently is, of course, related to strong market demand and relatively tight supply, but it also does not rule out any factors that may be speculative. Following the introduction of the “Dimethyl Ether from Town Gas” industry standard at the beginning of September, a news report was recently made at the second new coal chemical summit held in Shaanxi Province: M85 high-rate vehicle methanol gasoline standard will be completed by the end of this year. It will be released early next year. Many sellers are taking advantage of the introduction of these two standards and the forthcoming introduction of the promising prospect of continuously dyeing alcohol ethers, creating a market atmosphere with a bright alcohol ether market and a continuing increase in prices, which will continue to be a rising alcohol ether market " "Improve the fire," and push methanol and dimethyl ether prices to rise dramatically in the short term. However, in fact, the introduction of any product standard, although it has the function of regulating the market and promoting the healthy and stable development of the industry, it will never become a key factor for the price of a certain product to continue to rise sharply. Under market economy conditions, the price of a product will be determined to rise or fall. The internal or key factor is still the relationship between supply and demand. From this point of view, the price of alcohol ethers will hardly rise sharply again in the near future, and the possibility of maintaining high or slow declines is very high.

However, with the onset of winter, domestic and foreign demand for automotive fuels and civilian fuels will peak, supporting the international oil prices and liquefied petroleum gas prices to maintain high levels of operation, which will support the high prices of alcohol ethers, and prices will remain in the short term High position.

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