LED lighting market will enter a rapid growth period in the next few years


In 1997, Nichia Corporation published white light-emitting diodes (LEDs), which ignited global hopes for the realization of semiconductor lighting, and were highly valued by governments and companies. Semiconductor lighting can replace traditional lighting sources, in addition to energy saving, solving energy shortages, and can bring huge business opportunities. After more than ten years of hard work, the luminous efficacy of white light-emitting diodes has reached more than 200lm/W in the laboratory, and the commercially available products can reach more than 150lm/W, which has surpassed the traditional incandescent bulbs, energy-saving lamps and fluorescent tubes. . Governments will also ban the use of incandescent bulbs in succession. In addition, the price of LED bulbs has reached the level of market competitiveness compared with traditional lighting sources. In the next few years, the LED lighting market will enter a rapid growth period.
I. Development of the LED industry in the past ten years In 2002, the demand for LEDs increased significantly due to the backlight and buttons of mobile phones using white light and blue GaN LEDs. According to the data of the strategy company StrategyUnlimited, the world's LED package components During the period from 2001 to 2004, the average annual revenue growth was as high as 44, which is the first wave of growth in the global LED industry.
During the period from 2004 to 2007, the application of the market began to develop toward backlights such as GPS screens, electronic photo frames and notebooks. The LED market continued to grow, and LED light efficiency continued to increase. The amount is large and gradually decreases. Since the fourth quarter of 2008, due to the impact of the financial tsunami, the global economy has deteriorated and the price of LED chips has decreased. However, due to the cooperation between Taiwanese chip makers and Korean manufacturers Samsung and LG, LCD TVs with side-lit LED backlights are available in due course. Due to the use of LED mix-mix technology (mix-bin), increased die utilization, and lower die prices, LCD TVs with edge-lit LED backlights and liquid crystals with cold cathode tubes (CCFL) as backlights The TV price difference is narrowed, and the LCD TV with side-lit LED backlight has the advantages of ultra-thin screen and light weight, which has driven the second wave of LEDs. In 2010, the global market for high-brightness LEDs was significantly larger than that of 2009. Growed 93.
However, due to the slow pace of recovery from the global economic boom in 2011, LED-backlit LCD TV sales were not as good as expected. On the other hand, LED companies in mainland China, under the government's policy support and financial subsidies, significantly expanded their production capacity and caused LEDs. The supply is far greater than the demand, and the price competition of LED components in the market is becoming more intense. However, due to the decline in the price of LED components, the price of LED lighting sources is no longer unattainable. In 2006, CREE introduced a 60-watt incandescent lamp instead of LED bulbs with a power consumption of 9.5 watts. It can emit 800 lumens at a price of only $12.97. Subsequently, OSRAM in Europe announced in April 2013 that it would start selling LED bulbs with prices below 10 Euros. Although the price competition of LED bulbs is getting worse, it will help stimulate the willingness of consumers to buy. Therefore, it is generally expected that the sweet spot of lighting has arrived, and the high-brightness LED industry is about to enter the third wave of high growth.
Second, the changes in the LED industry in various regions of the world over the past decade According to the report of the market organization Strategy Unlimited, until 2008, the output value of LED package components ranked first in Japan, and Taiwan ranked second, followed by Europe, the United States, and South Korea. And mainland China (as shown in Table (1)). However, by 2010, the market share of Korean manufacturers jumped from 13 in 2009 to 28, while Japan still maintains the number one position in the world, but the proportion of output value of LED package components has dropped from 44 in 2009 to 33 in 2010. South Korea is able to lag behind Taiwan and Europe and the United States from its original market share, and has advanced significantly in less than two years. There are three manufacturers, Samsung, LG and Seoul Semiconductor are among the top ten in the world, mainly relying on Samsung and LG. Pushing LED-backlit LCD TVs, and Samsung and LG's LED backlights are developed using internal vertical integration, from LED epitaxial growth, die fabrication, component packaging, to backlight strips, completely self-made, and It is supplied to self-produced LED-backlit LCD TVs. The success of Samsung and LG to promote LED-backlit TVs has also increased the penetration rate of LCD TVs with LED backlights from 2, about 3 million units in 2009 to 17 in 2010, about 31 million units. Of course, LEDs have also been created. high demand. Although Samsung and LG started to push LED-backlit TVs in 2009, they could not provide a sufficient number of high-efficiency LED package components in the initial stage. They must rely on Taiwan LED manufacturers to provide die and package products, but Samsung, LG, and Seoul Semiconductor quickly expanded its LED capacity. Korean manufacturers' MOCVD equipment was less than 100 units in 2008, but by 2011, the number of MOCVD machines had rapidly increased to about 450 units. Since the LED package components produced will be preferentially used in their own brand of LED-backlit TVs, the market share of LED package components in Korea has soared rapidly. However, as the penetration of LED backlights in LCD TVs and monitors will gradually increase to 90 in 2013, it is close to saturation, and there is limited room for future growth. The main kinetic energy of the future growth of LED package components will come from general lighting.
Third, technological progress accelerates the advent of the LED lighting era As many countries around the world begin to ban incandescent light bulbs, as well as LED bulb efficiency and price reduction, LED has been from landscape lighting, outdoor lighting, and gradually penetrated into the field of commercial lighting, and In the next few years, the replacement of incandescent bulbs has become the main source of home lighting.
Of course, in order to replace the traditional lighting source, the luminous efficacy of the LED must be continuously improved, not only exceeding 10~15 lumens/watt of the incandescent lamp, 40~60 lumens/watt of the compact fluorescent lamp, or even exceeding the fluorescent tube of the straight tube type. 80~100 lumens/watt. According to the updated US Department of Energy solid-state lighting R&D product roadmap, in 2013, the LED efficiency of cold white light should reach 180 lumens/watt or more, and the warm white light should reach 150 lumens/watt or more.
The efficiency of LED package components has improved significantly over the past few years. Most of the white LED package components in 2005 have a luminous efficacy of only about 60 lumens per watt, but by most of this year, most manufacturers have reached 150 lumens per watt. For example, in February 2012, Toyota announced that its 3528-packaged white LED can achieve 170 lumens/watt, and it will be mass-produced in April. Taiwan's Everlight can also supply 150 lumens/watt 3014 LED package. . Seoul Semiconductor of South Korea also announced in July 2013 that its power 5630 LED has a luminous efficacy of 180 lumens per watt.
LED lighting should be popularized. In addition to the improvement of LED light efficiency, the more important factor is that the price should be competitive. According to the US Department of Energy's solid-state lighting research and development product roadmap, the price of cool white light per thousand lumens in 2013 is less than $4, while the price of warm white LEDs is less than $5.1 per thousand lumens. By 2020, the price per thousand lumens of cool white or warm white LED package components will drop to less than one dollar, that is, the price per thousand lumens is about one-fifth now. This is a very big challenge, according to the United States. The Department of Energy released the solid-state lighting R&D multi-year plan in April 2013. In 2012, Philips Lumileds' cool white light high-power LED light efficiency was 130 lm/W, and the price per thousand lumens was about US$5, which is more than the US Department of Energy's plan. The target price is slightly lower at $6 per thousand lumens, but it is also slightly lower than the 2012 target value of 150 lm/W in LED light efficiency.
In order to further reduce the price per thousand lumens, many LED upstream epitaxial and die factories in Europe, America, Japan and Korea have tried to use 6-inch sapphire chips to increase production capacity and reduce chip edge loss to improve LED die production. Yield, but this is not necessarily beneficial for the upstream epitaxial and grain plants in Taiwan and the mainland, because LED chips are currently in overproduction, and capital is needed to expand the 6-inch production line. The price per unit area of ​​the upper 6-inch sapphire chip is still much higher than 2 inches and 4 inches. Therefore, Taiwan and mainland manufacturers will still be based on 4-inch sapphire chips in the short term. However, entering 6-inch production is not able to achieve the desired cost.
Because the 6-inch sapphire chip is more expensive, OSRAM, Toshiba, Bridglux, Plessey, Azzurro, and Crystal Optoelectronics try to replace the sapphire chip with a silicon chip, but the silicon chip does not match the lattice of the gallium nitride material, and the coefficient of thermal expansion It also varies greatly, which makes it difficult to grow a good quality epitaxial layer. Although the price of the silicon chip is very cheap, since the silicon chip absorbs visible light, it is also required to be bonded to another transparent or light-reflecting substrate before the LED die manufacturing process, and then the silicon chip is removed from the gallium nitride. With the removal of the crystal layer, these additional manufacturing processes also increase the manufacturing cost of the LED die. Therefore, at present, Toshiba in Japan, Plessey in the United Kingdom, and Jingneng Optoelectronics in the mainland have begun to produce and sell blue light emitting diode chips or packaged white light emitting diodes using silicon substrates. But Philips Lumileds decided to temporarily abandon plans to grow GaN on silicon substrates, while still focusing on using 6-inch sapphire substrates to reduce die production costs. Whether the future use of silicon substrates for gallium nitride epitaxy can become mainstream will depend on whether the chip produced by GaN epitaxial growth on the silicon substrate is broken and bent, resulting in low production yield.
Another possible way to reduce the price per thousand lumens of LED is to operate the same size LED die at a higher current, resulting in a higher lumen value, so that an LED bulb is required for the same output lumen. The number of LEDs that can be reached can be reduced. Usually a 1 mm square LED die, its operating current is used at 350 mA, if operating at 1 amp, and the LED's light efficiency will not be reduced too much, it can reduce the use of LED package components by more than half However, the premise is that the LEDs produced can be operated at high currents without reducing the light efficiency too much, and of course can not affect the service life of the LED components. Such LEDs that can operate at higher current densities are also not advantageous in certain LED applications, such as full-circumference LED bulbs or straight-tube fluorescent tubes, which also require the use of optical components or light diffusing films. To solve the problem of glare, or evenly distribute the light, and because the LED operates at a large current density, the heat is concentrated, and the cost of the heat treatment is also increased. Therefore, such a high-power LED that can operate at a large current density is more suitable for a directional LED illumination source such as a spotlight.
The cost of LED package components, in addition to LED die, other packaging materials, such as brackets, silicone, phosphor, packaging manufacturing costs, also accounted for more than half of the cost, there is still a lot of space to save. At present, COB (Chiponboard) products directly package multiple LED chips on a PCB or ceramic substrate of an aluminum substrate to form a surface light source. Compared with the conventional single package process, the cost of the package can be saved, and the light engine module can be fabricated. The cost and the cost of secondary light distribution can solve the problem of overlapping and glare caused by the point source, and the phenomenon is more and more common in use.
As for the chip-scale package in which the phosphor and optical components are integrated into the LED die during the fabrication of the LED die, the package material is less used, compared to the current SMD package. Prices can be cheaper and a trend in the future.
Fourth, the future changes in the LED industry in various regions of the world LED lighting development and LED lighting efficiency and cost are inseparable relationship, LED light efficiency if it does not exceed the traditional lighting source, or the price is too expensive than the traditional light source, LED lighting can not A lot of replacement for traditional lighting. The efficiency and price of LED lighting sources are mainly determined by the luminous efficiency and production cost of LED dies. Therefore, whoever leads the LED die R&D manufacturing technology in the early stage will affect its competitiveness in the lighting market. Since LED lighting may replace traditional lighting, and traditional lighting manufacturers can not give up the original market, it is not self-developed and manufactured, it is to cooperate with other companies. Philips and Agilent of the United States jointly established LumiledsLightingB.V. in 1999. Later, in 2005, they bought shares in Agilent and bought shares in 2007. Let Lumileds become a subsidiary of Philips. Control the core technology of LED lighting and support the continuous development of Philips lighting.
Japan's Nichia (Nich

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